'Escalation': Trump's meeting with Xi likely to make trade war much worse, says Goldman Sachs


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President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping will meet on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Buenos Aires, Argentina this weekend, in what is among the most widely watched bilateral meetings of 2018.


Goldman Sachs has some reservations about what will happen when Xi and Trump meet.

Goldman Sachs has some reservations about what will happen when Xi and Trump meet.Credit:Andrew Harnik


There have been tentative signs that a deal may be struck, but according to analysts at Goldman Sachs, the most likely outcome of the meeting is that the trade war actually escalates.


“We currently see ‘escalation’ as the most likely outcome in the next few months, with slightly over a 50 per cent probability,” the note from a Goldman team led by Andrew Tilton said.


That scenario, according to the report, would mean tariff rates rise to 25 per cent on all imports currently under tariff, while tariffs are extended to remaining Chinese imports. The other, less likely, near-term scenarios Goldman Sachs outlines in the note are a ‘pause,’ and a ‘deal.’


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