There's a 50-50 chance Trump is about to trigger a global oil shock
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“Nobody has a clue what Iranian exports will be. There are potential declines in Libya, Nigeria, Mexico and Venezuela. Our spare capacities for the globe are much less today than they were in the past, and we are using a significant part of them,” he told Tass.
Mr Al-Falih says the kingdom can ramp up output from 10.7 million to 12million barrels a day (b/d). “This I can assure. But if 3m b/d disappears, we cannot cover this volume,” he said.
Few oil watchers believe the Saudis can in fact reach 12 million barrels a day in any meaningful time horizon. SP Global Platts said the Saudis are already running flat out. There is a 500,000 barrels a day field waiting in the Saudi-Kuwait “neutral zone”, this is caught up in a dispute over Kuwait’s diplomatic tilt towards Turkey. What seems clear is that Washington will take a draconian line on exemptions for buyers of Iranian crude, with limited waivers and phase-out periods even for allies.
“Our goal remains getting countries importing oil from Iran to zero as quickly as possible,” said Brian Hook, head of the state department’s Iran action group.
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