Julia Banks is in the box seat for Chisholm at next election


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After last weekend, the Greens would be ill-disposed to give Labor any preferences, so the Labor candidate would drop out and Banks would win on Labor preferences.


If the Liberal candidate dropped out before the Labor candidate, Banks would still likely win on Liberal preferences. She really is in the box seat.


The fundamental point is that with the major parties’ first preference vote languishing in the low- to mid-30s in lots of places in Australia, the chance for a well-known, centrist independent to come through the middle is very high.


At present we have seven non-major-party MPs in the House of Representatives. That is 4.7 per cent of the seats, yet the non-majors are getting 25 per cent of the vote. As that vote increases in some places (where there are good independents or Greens or Centre Alliance) to around 30 per cent, expect the number of non-major MPs to increase quite sharply.


Further once non-major candidates get elected, they usually get re-elected. One reason is that voters do not feel their vote is “wasted” and the other is that public funding gives successful independents a sporting chance to compete more evenly in election campaigns.


Article source: http://smh.com.au/nsw/young-teen-received-more-than-600-emails-from-34yearold-posing-as-15yearold-20171013-gz0kx0.html

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