'I'd be a little careful': Wall Street is in dangerous territory


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“We were bullish for a long time, but right now I’d say I’m in a wait-and-see mode,” Hickey said. “I think it’s a time to be cautious.”


I also asked James W. Paulsen, chief investment strategist of the Leuthold Group, an investment research firm in Minneapolis, for his sense of the market. An economist, Paulsen is worried about stocks because he is worried about the economy, he said. While the United States is not in a recession now, he said, “we have moved into the ballpark of a recession.”


Paulsen said neither he nor anyone else could reliably forecast a recession. “That kind of prediction is just too hard to do,” he said. But, he added, it is possible to judge when the risks of recession have risen.


“It gets somewhat easy, with a little experience, to recognise when you’re in the ballpark of a recession,” Paulsen said. “That is where we are now, and that alone is quite a bit of information.”


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