8@eight: ASX to open lower as trade talk hits Wall Street


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The implied open currently sits at a drop of 9 points or -0.17% despite gains expected by BHP of 0.79%.


3. Tonight will see the US employment report for May: The median estimate is for 190k jobs added, but the complementary evidence is building that reports could continue to show a robust US economy that is nurturing an inflationary environment. Within the report, the Average Hourly Earnings is always in focus due to its price pressure through wages. The YoY expectation is a gain of 2.6% in average hourly earnings.


If Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard has any insight into what may be coming for future US economic reports, traders should anticipate upside risks that may lead to a stronger US Dollar. Brainard said that the Fed might hike past the neutral rate meaning they could take the rate to the point that the Fed’s cash rate acts as an impediment to growth and curb for possible runaway inflation. She also said that the US economy is showing ‘some risk to the upside’ and that the outlook ‘remains quite positive’ while downplaying the flattening US yield curve as ‘just one’ indicator to monitor.


4. Just when you think trade wars have cooled, the US pushes forward with levy on key partners: When it comes to trade wars, much of the attention recently has kept to the stand off between the United States and China. From the escalating threats of massive duties on imports (and the retaliations) to relief for a stated ‘pause’ to a return with $US50 billion in intellectual property tariffs, the situation has proven a slow burner for speculative risk. This past session, a sudden and unexpected rift opened between the US and some of its most important counterparts. The blanket steel and aluminum tariffs originally announced back in March – but delayed twice – returned with the news that the Trump administration would apply the 25 and 10 percent levies for the two metals on the European Union, Canada and Mexico. This caught the market off guard as the threat was seen more of a tactic to pressure negotiations in the United States’ favour.


As expected, officials from all three peers announced they were working on retaliatory measures marking an immediate escalation of this trade war flare-up. The risk associated with the world’s largest economy engaging in trade actions with China – a still country still somewhat disconnected from the global economy and markets – always carried with it a measure of limited escalation. Charting out ‘bad case scenarios’ for the US and European relationship renders far deeper risks and more probable pain.


Article source: http://watoday.com.au/lifestyle/celebrity/celebrity-news/prince-harry-says-no-royal-wants-to-be-king-or-queen-20170622-gwwskl.html

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